The Future of Dalvin Cook and the Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Vikings’ General Manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah has been vague on Cook’s future since the combine in February. He has refused to confirm that Cook will be on the Vikings’ 2023 roster. In March, Adofo-Mensah re-signed No. 2 running back Alexander Mattison to a contract that guarantees him $6.35 million over the next two seasons, a deal that would be expensive for a backup. Mattison later said he returned partly because of understanding how everything would work out. Recently, coach Kevin O’Connell praised Mattison’s demonstration of “that all-three-down kind of ownership that he’s been capable of for a long time,” while also noting a brewing competition for the No. 2 role. The Vikings have yet to formalize Cook’s exit, although this seems likely if not entirely certain.

There has been speculation that the leaguewide release of salary cap space on post-June 1 moves could spark a trade, with the Miami Dolphins potentially being the leading suitor. However, Thursday came and went with no deal. ESPN has been following this complicated process throughout the offseason, but it’s worth summarizing as the Vikings approach the final week of organized team activities.

The Cook Versus Mattison Debate

Cook has rushed for more yards (5,993) than any Vikings runners except Adrian Peterson (11,747) and Robert Smith (6,818). He produced his fourth consecutive 1,000-yard season in 2022 and did not miss a game for the first time in his career. However, the contract extension he signed in 2020 called for him to earn $11 million in 2023, with a $14.1 million salary cap number, the third- and fourth-highest figures in the league for running backs, respectively. He will turn 28 in August, an age when production for NFL running backs starts to falter. In 2022, only three running backs rushed for more than 500 yards after they turned 28: the Denver Broncos’ Latavius Murray (33), the Dolphins’ Raheem Mostert (30), and the Tennessee Titans’ Derrick Henry (29).

On one hand, Cook had two of the six longest runs of his career in 2022: a 53-yard score in Week 6 against the Dolphins and an 81-yard touchdown in Week 10 against the Buffalo Bills. On the latter, he recorded a top speed of 21.68 mph, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, the seventh-fastest speed recorded for any ball carrier in 2022. However, his efficiency numbers, which measure the frequency of carries that produce a positive outcome, dipped noticeably. He led the NFL with 62 carries that either lost or did not gain a yard. And as ESPN’s Bill Barnwell noted, only 34.5% of his carries gained a positive total of yards over expectation in Next Gen Stats’ model, the second-lowest rate among running backs with at least 200 carries in 2022. In other words, Cook was less consistent in 2022 than he has ever been.

Mattison has been viewed more as an injury replacement for Cook rather than a backup over the first four years of his career. All five of his 20-carry games have come in games Cook either missed or left early. While the Vikings have discussed the possibility of keeping Cook under a reduced salary, following through would perpetuate a financial logjam that most concepts of smart team-building suggest should be avoided. With Cook’s numbers on their books, the Vikings rank No. 1 in the league in cash and No. 3 in cap commitment to the running back position. Even if they slashed both his salary and cap number by 50%, the Vikings would still rank in the NFL’s top 10 for running backs in each category.

In a relatively small sample size over the previous four seasons, Mattison has proved to be a younger, less expensive, and less explosive version of Cook. His cap numbers over the next two seasons, however, are $2.4 million and $4.6 million, respectively. The question is whether the drop-off in performance from Cook to Mattison, if any, would be worth the smaller financial footprint. The Vikings seem to have made their decision, and it makes sense from this vantage point. All indications are that O’Connell would use Mattison as an every-down back, similar to last season when Cook received 74% of the carries.

Early spring practices have suggested two candidates for the No. 2 job in a Mattison-led backfield: Ty Chandler, a 2022 draft pick who spent most of the season on injured reserve, and Pro Bowl kickoff returner Kene Nwangwu. DeWayne McBride, a seventh-round draft pick from UAB who led the nation in rushing during the 2022 college season, is an intriguing prospect but has been rehabilitating a minor injury during spring drills and has yet to participate.

If the Vikings wanted to release Cook, even with a post-June 1 designation, they could have done it months ago. So, it appears Adofo-Mensah wants to get something in return for letting Cook leave, even if it’s modest. Adofo-Mensah believes that incremental achievements add up to something great.

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